In investing, as in life, doing nothing is not a weakness; it is sometimes the most demanding act. Patience and stagnation are not the same: waiting for the right moment is strategy, rushing to feel reassured is a distraction. The silence between two decisions is the space where performance is built.

• Business as usual

• Busy… but with what?

• A ATH isn’t a sell signal

• B-R & H Finance

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Market Review

Business as usual

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 bps on September 17, bringing the range down to 4.00–4.25%. Yet a handful of robust U.S. macroeconomic indicators were enough for markets to start questioning whether the Fed was right to ease, and whether two more cuts by year-end are really in the cards. Unsurprisingly, 10-year sovereign yields moved higher, generating losses in bond portfolios. Worth noting: Fitch upgraded Italy to BBB+ on September 19.

Today’s news is dominated by the looming prospect of a government shutdown in the US. Donald Trump was already in power during the longest shutdown in history (34 days):

Gold broke above Usd 3,800/oz for the first time on September 29 (+45.5% YTD). But it is silver that leads the performance table, up 62.2% YTD. Oil also had a strong run, with WTI logging its best week since June, up about 5%, on the back of tensions with Russia and renewed supply concerns.

In the U.S., the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq all hit fresh records on Monday, September 22, before slipping for three consecutive sessions, leaving the week in negative territory; more a pause after a strong summer than a trend reversal. Among the indices we follow, the SMI remains the laggard, up just 3.21% YTD and down -1.41% MTD, weighed down by the strong CHF, new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and the so-called “Nestlé Gate”. Meanwhile, the Eurostoxx gained 1.74% over the month, creating a swing of more than 3% for investors in just a few weeks — a sizeable gap.

AI once again dominated flows. Alibaba surged 50% over the month, lifted by the announcement of massive infrastructure investments and the launch of Qwen3-Max. In Asia, SK hynix rallied after unveiling its HBM4 chip, while TSMC benefited from solid demand for advanced semiconductors. Nvidia’s plan to invest up to Usd 100 Bn in OpenAI reignited the debate over the “circularity” of the ecosystem: “I finance you, you buy my chips” — a pattern reminiscent of the late 1990s dotcom bubble. Performance-wise, Intel was among the strongest U.S. gainers (+48%). Tesla, buoyed by Elon Musk’s renewed focus on the business, jumped 32% in September (+7.3% YTD). We remain impressed by Alphabet’s AI portfolio (Gemini Canvas and Banana Nano), which helped push the stock up 15.7% MTD.

In Europe, Kering stood out with a rebound of over 20% in September, boosted by the arrival of Luca de Meo as CEO and another shake-up at Gucci, where Francesca Bellettini replaced Stefano Cantino — clear signs of a renewed effort to accelerate the brand’s turnaround. By contrast, wine and spirits names continued to struggle: Pernod Ricard fell -13.8% and Rémy Cointreau -12.4%, weighed down by soft consumption trends and the ongoing tariff dispute with the U.S.

In Switzerland, SIG Group suffered one of the steepest drops of the month (-33.5%) following a profit warning and dividend suspension; the stock is back near 2019 levels despite revenues now exceeding Eur 3.3 Bn and a business still largely driven by aseptic carton packaging.

Finally, BYD was hit by the announcement that Berkshire Hathaway was exiting its longstanding stake.

Few numbers

• About 27% of online video traffic is pornographic content.

• Among young people aged 5 to 19, the proportion who are underweight has declined globally (from around 13% in 2000 to 9.2% today), while obesity has increased (from 3% to 9.4%); some Pacific countries show the highest rates, such as Niue (38%), the Cook Islands (37%), and Nauru (33%).

• Heating accounts for more than 60% of household energy consumption in Europe.

Editorial

Busy… but with what?

In France, politics has turned into a never-ending play. Each day the curtain rises on the same act: no majority, no agreement, no decision. Day after day, the scene repeats itself; the actors change, the costumes vary, but the script remains the same. We know the lines by heart, the grandstanding, the hollow rhetoric. The theater is full: politicians gesticulate, commentators comment, journalists fill columns, TV panels gorge on “experts”… and in the end, nothing. The mountain gives birth to a mouse (if that). It is Molière without comedy, Beckett without the absurd. For us, the audience, it feels like watching a frozen performance, where noise replaces action and demagoguery stands in for leadership.

So, let’s step away from the noise and talk about time. In 1930, Keynes imagined that productivity gains would grant us 15-hour workweeks by 2030. Productivity came, but the workweek never shrank. There are five years left for his prophecy to come true. The irony is that AI makes possible what Keynes once foresaw: offloading the tedious to free up quality time. Serious estimates now point to considerable productivity gains.

But what if the problem isn’t the technology, but how we fill the space it opens? This is where Parkinson’s old law comes in: “work expands to fill the time available.” Give a two-hour slot to a thirty-minute task, and it will take two hours. Writer Tim Kreider nailed this modern flaw: staying “busy” serves as an “existential insurance.” In other words, the issue is not having time, but knowing what to do with it. I like a simple image to untangle it: the hamster wheel and the chessboard. On the wheel, you sweat, you move, you hit your 10,000 steps, but you remain in the same place. On the chessboard, you move little, anticipate three moves ahead, and every gesture counts. Time there is not a container to be filled but an asset to be invested.

The subtle art of doing nothing (intelligently)

Doing nothing is a decision. Sometimes it is even the hardest one to take, especially in finance. We often confuse patience with paralysis, procrastination with wisdom. The long-term investor is not a procrastinator, but a strategist. He knows that excessive action is often more costly than inaction.

The line is fine:

• Not acting out of fear of facing reality is procrastination.

• Not acting because you’re waiting for the right window is patience.

• Not acting because you don’t know what to do is a signal to revisit your strategy.

In other words, not acting can be cowardice or it can be foresight. It all depends on the intent. The temptation is strong to “do something” to feel reassured. But in finance, as elsewhere, agitation rarely equals results. Studies show it clearly: the most active investors often underperform those who know how to wait. Real discipline lies in accepting the silence between two decisions.

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Investments

A ATH isn’t a sell signal

My son, who does more than dabble in markets, and who has never lived through the subprime crisis, the dotcom bubble, or 1987 for that matter, is worried. Everything seems to be at its ATH (All Time High), investors look euphoric. Are they right to be?

First answer: a peak is not a signal in itself. An ATH tells you where we are, not where we’re going. Markets hit new highs dozens of times in a bull cycle; some roll over afterwards, others keep climbing. The real question is not “are we at the top?”, but “are we paying the right price for future growth?”.

Second answer: learn the right lesson from history. After 2000, many swore off tech; the lesson should have been not to overpay for promises. After 2008, some banished banks altogether; the lesson was to beware of leverage poorly managed. History rhymes, it doesn’t repeat. You don’t transpose the past wholesale into the present; you extract principles from it.

Third answer: separate the accidental from the repeatable. A one-off success does not make a method. What does endure are practices: clear entry and exit rules, valuation discipline (PEG ratio), solid balance sheets, visible earnings trajectories. These are the bricks that let you get through peaks as well as troughs.

For the investor nervous about an ATH:

1. Price vs. momentum
   Ask three simple questions: Are earnings really growing? Are forecasts being revised upward? Is the multiple paid consistent with that pace? If at least two answers are yes, the high is less intimidating.

2. Alternative scenario
   Indices are often pulled by a handful of names. It’s fine to be exposed to leaders, but not to let them dominate the portfolio. Always write a scenario B: if the star disappoints, who picks up the baton?

3. Time management
   Set a rhythm: a weekly check on new facts, a monthly check on allocation, a quarterly review of the investment thesis. Time then becomes an ally.

4. Barbell of prudence
   Pair high-quality, visible assets with a measured dose of more cyclical, innovative plays. This way, you avoid relying on a single engine.

In truth, none of the above applies to my son. His portfolio feeds on volatility, chasing stocks with high alpha. He cuts losses quickly and rides the wave of a few winners. His latest move: a side pocket for highly speculative bets, using leverage up to 5x. It’s play money in a way — an accelerated learning curve, exactly what he needs at his age, and very much of his age.

B-R & H Finance

Founded in 2004, B-R & H Finance SA is a Swiss entity specialized in wealth management. We offer a full range of personalized and independent investment services and advisory solutions. Regulated by SO-Fit and authorized by FINMA, we are also members of the ASG (Swiss Association of Independent Asset Managers) and work with leading custodian banks.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or adopt an investment strategy. The information, opinions, and analyses presented here are based on sources believed to be reliable and are expressed in good faith, but no explicit or implicit guarantee is made regarding their accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Stock market investments are subject to market and other risks, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance is not indicative of future results.