This month in Les 4 Saisons, we explore what the back-to-school season reveals about us—or rather, about our collective conditioning to live in school-year cycles. From schoolbags to portfolios, it’s just a small step…

On the markets side, we look back at a sunny August, a sluggish CAC40, and a triumphant Africa. We also take note of Ethereum’s spectacular comeback—from the abyss to becoming Wall Street’s new darling.

• Market Review

• August 2025 was a good vintage

• Time regained

• Ethereum: The Rollercoaster Year

• B-R & H Finance

Market Review

August 2025 was a good vintage

As of 01.09.2025

It belongs in the category of bullish months for most equity markets, even if the last Friday of the month brought a slight dip in mood.
The S&P500 posted a solid +9.8% since January 1st; not bad for a market that limped into the year. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 delivered a respectable +8.3% YTD. But the gold medal goes to the often-overlooked African continent, with an impressive +43.02% since the beginning of the year. We've been following it for a long time—often going against the grain—and this time, it's leading the dance.

September: The Month of Big Moves

Historically, September is a tricky month: time to readjust, de-risk, and cash in. Coming back from holidays often brings some portfolio spring-cleaning. And this year seems no different. Investors are asking themselves: what should I own? Why? And more importantly: where?

The environment remains turbulent. Interest rates are still high, and geopolitical fractures persist. The apparent calm can be deceptive: the VIX (the fear index) is at its lowest since January, even as valuations continue to rise. Do trees grow to the sky?

France: A Bit Under the Weather—Politics and Handbags to Blame

Since the surprise announcement of Parliament's dissolution in June 2024, the CAC40 has been dragging its feet. The vote of confidence scheduled for September 8 adds more fuel to the fire. French 10-year rates rose 9 basis points to hit 3.52% (a high since March), while the OAT/Bund spread widened to 75 basis points.

Luxury giants, once the engine of the market, are now struggling. Kering is slowly climbing back with +3.8% YTD, while LVMH remains bogged down in negative territory (-16.8%). Fortunately, our French banks and a few defense names have pulled out the bayonets to defend the index.

Big Tech: Bubble or Not?

The question comes back like a chorus: "Is U.S. tech in a bubble?" Let’s remember the peak of 2000, when valuations had completely lost touch with gravity. Today, the S&P500 Tech trades at 29.7 times forward earnings. That’s higher than its historical median (22x), but still far from dotcom-bubble territory.

In short: expensive, but not crazy. Caution, not panic.

What We Read Between Dips in the Sea

• BYD surprised with a 30% drop in quarterly earnings. A useful reminder: even giants can stumble in a ruthless price war.

• Volkswagen is climbing steadily (+6.4% in August, +14.0% YTD). A real diesel engine, with an attractive valuation profile.

• Novo Nordisk and its Wegovy are back in favor. The obesity drug also shows superior cardiovascular benefits compared to Eli Lilly’s alternative.

• The U.S. took a 9.9% stake in Intel. A partial nationalization of a tech flagship, possibly foreshadowing more industrial deal-making under the Trump administration.

Our View

August was generous, but September brings its share of uncertainty and repositioning. We continue to favor a selective, geographically diversified approach—one eye on valuations, and the other on political shifts, especially in Europe.

Few numbers

• From everyday to exceptional: only 17% of French people still drink wine daily, compared to over 50% in 1980.

• France has gone from barrels to balloon glasses: from 120 litres of wine per adult per year in the 1960s to less than 40 litres today.

• A primary school teacher earns on average Eur 2'680 net, compared to Eur 3'930 for a secondary school agrégé; these figures include bonuses and allowances, which represent on average 18% of gross salary in secondary education and 12.6% for primary school teachers.

• In twenty years, France has dropped from 12th to 25th place globally in terms of GDP per capita; in 2024, it ranked 25th out of 27 EU countries for public deficit.

Editorial

Time regained

Some habits withstand the years. Some people still count in francs; others have never truly stopped thinking of life in school years. I probably belong to the latter, not entirely by choice. One of our sons is still at home, one year away from his baccalaureate, and my wife, thankfully, has always been quicker than me to prepare for the rentrée. Still, when the end of August rolls around, we feel something shift. A sort of imaginary bell rings, calling us back to effort, to ambition, to a certain gravity rediscovered after summer’s carefree drift.

This temporal framework inherited from school shapes more than just our calendar: it seeps into the way we assess success, structure projects, process failures. The vocabulary has evolved, of course—especially in the mouths of HR during annual reviews—but the spirit remains the same. You can still hear the echoes of old report cards: “Could do better”, “Lacks focus”, “A promising term”.

And this conditioning doesn’t end with graduation. I’ve noticed that even young adults just entering the job market continue to think in school years. For retirees, freelancers, entrepreneurs… the year no longer begins in September—nor does it end in June. We could break free of that framework. But most of the time, we don’t. The conditioning is cultural, not just logistical.

To be fair, the professional world itself perpetuates this rhythm. In September, companies fire up the engines, announce restructurings, strategic plans, upgraded ambitions—as if to shake off the summer haze with a flurry of Excel sheets. What wasn’t decided before July now must be settled before it’s too late. Because in truth, the “calendar year” ends well before December 31st. Projects start slowing down by mid-November.

And while markets quietly keep doing their work, politics and the media rehash the same old "turbulent rentrée" every year. 2025 is no exception. In France, François Bayrou is calling to "choose between chaos and responsibility". Others are already calling to "shut everything down" on September 10th. It would be comical if it weren’t so sad—these politicians of all stripes, tanned, well-rested, talking about rupture, chaos, struggle—as if returning from the battlefield instead of a deckchair.

So why do we keep structuring our lives around a cycle that no longer reflects our reality?

What if we started thinking in terms of seasons? Real ones. Not the marketing kind. Seasons that respect the natural rhythm of things—of ideas, of innovation. Some investments ripen slowly; others bloom in spring. Some projects hibernate before being reborn. And others, like wine, reach their peak long after the harvest.

Wealth management isn’t a straight-line sprint. It’s a garden. You don’t plant everything at once. You accept the unpredictable. You respect the cycles.

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Investments

Ethereum: The Rollercoaster Year

And the year isn’t over yet…

Ethereum is more than just a cryptocurrency. It’s a blockchain, launched in 2015, designed to power an entire decentralized economy: DeFi (decentralized finance), NFTs (non-fungible tokens), and real-world asset tokenization. Its native token, Ether (ETH), is the fuel that powers the system. Every transaction on the blockchain consumes “gas” paid in ETH. Since 2021, part of this gas has been “burned” (permanently removed from circulation)—just like fuel burned when driving a car.

Unlike Bitcoin, which relies on programmed scarcity (21 million coins, and not one more), Ethereum creates conditional scarcity: the more the network is used, the more ETH supply decreases. Add to this the staking mechanism: holders who lock their ETH to secure the network earn roughly 3.5% annually—while reducing the tradable supply on the market.

2025: From Abyss to Euphoria

The year began in pain. After opening January around Usd 3'353, Ethereum plunged—dragged down by macroeconomic doubts and competition from so-called “Ethereum killers”. In early April, it briefly dipped below Usd 1'400. For many, the cycle looked broken.

Then, the market turned—with the kind of violence only crypto knows. Fuelled by institutional adoption and new regulatory clarity, ETH bounced back: Usd 3'800 by end-July, Usd 4'670 mid-August, and an all-time intraday high of Usd 4'953 on August 24. That’s a nearly +200% surge from its spring low. Even after a correction back to Usd 4'500, the contrast is stunning: a blockchain on the brink in April, by August the darling of institutional flows.

Clear Catalysts

1. Ether ETFs in the U.S., which attracted over Usd 4.2 billion in net inflows within months—sometimes even outpacing Bitcoin.

2. The GENIUS Act, the first federal law on stablecoins, passed in July, officially labeling USD-backed stablecoins and legitimizing the use of public blockchains like Ethereum for payments.

3. The “Pectra” upgrade in May, which improved user experience (smart accounts, fees payable in tokens other than ETH) and reinforced Ethereum’s role in asset tokenization.

4. The burn mechanism, supercharged by booming stablecoin volumes (nearly Usd 20 billion transferred daily in USDC on Ethereum alone), making ETH partially deflationary.

What Comes Next?

Three forces will drive the next chapters:

1. Institutional flows: As long as ETFs keep absorbing capital, ETH benefits from a structural buyer. But these flows are fickle—a sudden stop could tip the balance.

2. Technical upgrades: After Pectra, the next step—Fusaka (November 2025)—aims to boost scalability and lower fees, thanks to new tech building blocks (Verkle Trees, danksharding). The key test? Real adoption by developers.

3. Stablecoins’ role: The GENIUS Act legitimized their use. Today, over half of the global stablecoin market runs on Ethereum. That dominance fuels the burn—but also brings pressure: congestion, and risks of centralization from a few major issuers.

Conclusion

Ethereum has become a hybrid asset: both critical infrastructure for digital finance and a wildly volatile speculative asset. In 2025, it proved two things:

• It can bend without breaking (the drop below Usd 1'400)

• And it can charm Wall Street in a matter of weeks (thanks to ETF flows)

One truth remains: ETH’s price is tied to three simple metrics—real usage of the network, the strength of the burn, and the depth of institutional flows.
That’s where smart investors should keep their eyes.

B-R & H Finance

Founded in 2004, B-R & H Finance SA is a Swiss entity specialized in wealth management. We offer a full range of personalized and independent investment services and advisory solutions. Regulated by SO-Fit and authorized by FINMA, we are also members of the ASG (Swiss Association of Independent Asset Managers) and work with leading custodian banks.

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