We are launching The 4 Saisons exactly one year after introducing Les 4 Saisons. While the French and the Anglo-Saxons have their differences—la perfide Albion, bloody frogs—when it comes to wealth, their perspectives tend to align. Taxation, wealth preservation, and investment strategies are recurring themes in our reflections, and these concerns are universal.

Table of Contents

• Europe is making a comeback!

• Few numbers

• TicTac - TicTac

• A year gone by

• Stylistic exercise

• B-R & H Finance

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Market Review

Europe is making a comeback!

For once, Europe is leading the stock market rankings. Several of the continent’s indices stand out, and among the ten best-performing stocks globally, eight come from Asia or Europe—a promising start to the year.

In the U.S., the Bitcoin frenzy had cooled significantly and Donald Trump’s surprise weekend announcement of a “crypto reserve” was short lived. The Bitcoin has fallen 19% from its January peak of $109,000 and, is now trading at $88,500 (as of 7.03 8h37 CET). The sector had already been rattled by an unprecedented hack on the Bybit platform, resulting in the theft of $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum. Ethereum remains down 34.4% year-to-date, making it the worst-performing asset among those we track (see LinkedIn). Meanwhile, the Trump token has collapsed 70% from its post-launch peak. It is now trading at CHF 11.19 per TRUMP, with a 24-hour trading volume of USD 860 million. At present, OFFICIAL TRUMP is 83% below its all-time high of CHF 66.90, the highest price ever paid for the token since its launch. Well worth watching the recent YouTube video from Patrick Boyle about meme coins.

The following part was written based on February month end figures.

The automotive industry is off to a rough start in 2025. Tesla’s slide continues, with a 27.5% drop in February and a 50.3% decline in European sales year-over-year (see LinkedIn for our basket of automotive stocks). Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce, long out of the car business, is soaring. Boosted by increased UK defense spending and a major nuclear contract, its stock surged 17.5% following strong earnings.

A few standout stocks in February, in no particular order: Intel (+22%), which fits well into the MAGA narrative; Société Générale (+25.78%), as financials remain the best-performing sector year-to-date; and Nestlé (+13.41%), the best Swiss performer of the month (see LinkedIn Swiss Top 10/Bottom 10). The move seemed to stem more from long-overdue catching-up than from any groundbreaking announcements.

Meanwhile, Nvidia remains in a league of its own. Sales soared 80% in Q4 2024 to $39.3 billion, with expectations of reaching $43 billion this quarter. Its profitability remains staggering. For every dollar in revenue, it generates 70 cents of net profit, far ahead of TotalEnergies’ 8 cents or Carrefour’s 1 cent. The outlook remains just as spectacular.

In France, Altice has reached a deal with creditors to restructure its €24 billion debt. Patrick Drahi retains control of the group but is ceding nearly half of its capital. Danone, on the other hand, continues its turnaround, with a 4.3% revenue increase in 2024, driven more by volume growth than price hikes.

Also in France, S&P has placed the country on negative watch. As we noted in our last edition, a downgrade from either Moody’s or S&P could have serious consequences. We reiterate our stance: stay away from sovereign debt, and particularly from French debt. Zucman’s 2.0% wealth tax on all assets could be the final nail in the coffin (Youtube video in French).

Few numbers

• 853,249 new cars were registered in the European Union in January, representing a 2.6% decline year-over-year. France (-6.2%), Italy (-5.8%), and Germany (-2.8%) dragged the average down, unlike Spain (+5.3%), the only major market on the continent to show positive growth.

• 31.6kg is the amount of poultry purchased by the French in 2024, including 25kg of chicken alone, making poultry the most consumed meat, ahead of pork.

• 41% of people talk to their table companions during meals, while screens dominate: 63% watch television, and 28% check their phones

Editorial

TicTac - TicTac

The pendulum is an invention as simple as it is relentless. Galileo is said to have observed its principle in the 16th century while watching a chandelier swing in Pisa Cathedral, but it was the Dutch scientist Huygens who, in 1656, transformed it into a precision instrument by inventing the pendulum clock. From then on, it became a symbol of passing time, steady motion, and predictable cycles. Yet, the pendulum is deceptive: it oscillates, yes, but it never returns to exactly the same point. Like history, it moves in fits and starts; always advancing, never entirely stable.

And time itself is not just an abstraction. It has its rhythm, its beat, its tic-tac; the ticking of clocks, the pulse of markets, the cycle of elections. A sound so constant that we forget it, until the moment it suddenly speeds up or stops dead. Tic-tac also inspired the name TikTok, evoking a countdown, urgency, and instant gratification. While clocks mark the passage of time, TikTok captures the fleeting, the ephemeral, the endless scroll that leaves no trace. Two opposing visions of time: one of predictable cycles, the other of immediate oblivion.

We sent out the first French edition of Les 4 Saisons on March 4, 2024. That same day, French lawmakers voted to enshrine the right to abortion in the Constitution. We quoted John Templeton: "Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, peak in optimism, and die in euphoria". One year later, we still believe we are in the phase of optimism.

On that same day, the U.S. Supreme Court decided not to prosecute Donald Trump for his role in the Capitol insurrection. That ruling cleared his path to the presidential election. The rest, as they say, is history.

Abracadabra

But Trump is, above all, a magician. A master illusionist who excels at misdirection. He waves one hand, provoking outrage, dominating headlines, while the other quietly closes the deal. As Europe recoils from his rants on Ukraine or his bombastic declarations, he reshapes trade balances, negotiates behind the scenes, and sets the tempo. The same sleight of hand, time and again: Europe looks the wrong way, gets indignant, and comments, while he moves his pieces, locks in alliances, and forces his opponents to react. Europe, always a step behind, clings to words while he shapes reality. Attention is a currency, and no one knows how to capture and exploit it better than Trump.

And what about his vice president, JD Vance, who presses where it hurts, exposing Europe’s democratic contradictions? It’s hard to argue with him when, just days later, a Romanian populist candidate is arrested mid-presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, the pendulum keeps swinging. Slow. Precise. Inevitable. Tic-tac, tic-tac.

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Investments

A year gone by

We apologize to our English-speaking readers, as this article reflects on past editions of Les 4 Saisons, the original French-language version of this publication. Nevertheless, it should give you a glimpse into some of the key themes we've been following over the past year.

It's always easier to look in the rearview mirror than to predict what's ahead. Les 4 Saisons is no exception. In our first edition (4th of March 2024), we highlighted the Ozempic revolution (Novo Nordisk, -32.5% yoy), Bitcoin (+33.91% yoy as of end-February), and the Grannollas. A year later, the results are mixed.

To borrow a football phrase: one-all, game on. But we remain convinced that companies developing GLP-1-related treatments have a bright future. The benefits go far beyond weight loss, and the medical applications of these drugs continue to expand.

Some of our calls have paid off nicely. We’re particularly proud of our June 2024 bet on the defense sector. Just last week, Les Échos reported that defense stocks are now trading at 25 times estimated 2025 earnings—on par with luxury stocks—despite lingering hopes for peace in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the pressure to further increase military budgets in Europe keeps growing.

In October, we also introduced our own nickname for a group of Chinese stocks: The Mandarin Marvels. A lighthearted nod that, a few months later, makes perfect sense.

And speaking of good instincts, we can’t resist adding one more. In the same edition where we coined The Mandarin Marvels, we wrote that “a trench coat is to a rainy day what the Birkin is to the world’s elite”, hinting that Hermès should acquire Burberry. The stock has since surged 67.08%, but it’s Moncler that appears to be circling the deal.

Artificial intelligence

Stylistic exercise

To mark the launch of the English edition of Les 4 Saisons, and because we are often asked whether AI is capable of creativity, we decided to put it to the test. And, let’s be honest, because we are horrified by what has become of the original idea of Europe.

So, we asked ChatGPT to write a modern-day Appeal of June 18, a speech meant to rally Europeans around a common vision. To take the challenge even further, we added one twist: Margaret Thatcher is still alive, and Brexit never happened.

The result? We will let you be the judge.

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Margareth Thatcher (style; sharp, direct, authoritative)

"Europe Must Stand Up"

Let us have no illusions. Europe was built on strength, on vision, on the determination of those who refused to let this continent slip into irrelevance. It was never meant to be a talking shop, nor a bureaucratic machine endlessly regulating itself into stagnation. It was meant to be a force in the world—a powerhouse of trade, industry, and security.

And yet, what do we see today? A Europe too timid to defend its own interests, too slow to seize opportunities, too weak to deter threats. While others act, we hesitate. While others build, we regulate. While others grow stronger, we draft statements of concern.

Let me say this plainly: a Europe that cannot defend itself, cannot provide its own energy, and cannot lead in technology is not a power—it is a target. We cannot afford to be at the mercy of economic coercion from Beijing or strategic dependence on Washington. A Europe that begs for protection is no Europe at all.

It is time to stop apologizing for our strength and start using it. To invest in industry, energy, and defense—not out of fear, but out of confidence. To lead in innovation, not regulate ourselves into decline. To stand up for ourselves, rather than waiting for others to do it for us.

Europe does not need more committees, more endless summits, or more well-meaning speeches. It needs action. It needs resolve. And above all, it needs the courage to stand up and take charge.

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De Gaulle (style épique, solennel, destiné à l’Histoire)

Françaises, Français, Européens, l’heure est grave

L’Europe, ce vieux continent qui a porté la civilisation, la science et l’esprit des Lumières, vacille. Elle hésite, elle doute, elle recule. Autour d’elle, le monde avance. Les empires renaissent, les grandes puissances s’affirment, et nous ? Nous débattons.

L’Europe est née d’une vision. Celle d’hommes qui, après le chaos, ont compris que l’union était la seule alternative au déclin. Schuman, Monnet, Adenauer… Ils ne parlaient pas de bureaucratie, mais de destin commun. D’une Europe puissante, prospère, capable de peser face aux empires.

Autrefois, nous avons su nous relever des ruines, bâtir un projet commun, tracer la voie d’une puissance unie et souveraine. Aujourd’hui, cette volonté s’effrite, minée par l’indécision, paralysée par la peur.

Mais l’Histoire ne s’écrit pas avec des regrets ni des hésitations. Elle appartient aux peuples qui se lèvent, qui refusent la soumission, qui choisissent leur destin.

Européens, le temps n’est plus aux discours. L’heure est venue de faire de l’Europe une puissance qui protège ses industries, défend ses intérêts, et affirme sa voix parmi les grandes nations du monde.

Vive l’Europe libre, forte et souveraine !

B-R & H Finance

Founded in 2004, B-R & H Finance SA is a Swiss entity specialized in wealth management. We offer a full range of personalized and independent investment services and advisory solutions. Regulated by SO-Fit and authorized by FINMA, we are also members of the ASG (Swiss Association of Independent Asset Managers) and work with leading custodian banks.

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