For Trump 1, it was about containing North Korea; for Trump 2, it will be Iran. Two dictatorships, two nuclear ambitions, two strategies of ballistic provocation. The language is the same: threats, negotiations, displays of force. And yet, the markets remain unmoved, accustomed to these drums of war. As long as the tankers keep moving and the missiles don’t cause too much damage, the indices stay calm.

• Nestlé falls, Nike rebounds, and the world bows to …

• Few numbers

• Iran: memory of an empire, tragedy of a nation

  • Black gold isn’t dead

• B-R & H Finance

Market Review

Nestlé falls, Nike rebounds, and the world bows to Trump

The double blow of tariffs and the fall of the USD (-12% against the CHF) is devastating for Swiss SMEs that are too small to have production sites outside Switzerland. For large groups, the situation is hardly better, as they are forced to apply the “Swiss finish” that customers expect (Nestlé -10.43% MTD). The SMI is almost the only index down in June (-1.42%, but +3.27% YTD). On the Swiss stock exchange, it's advisable to favor companies with a strong moat, capable of maintaining their margins, or companies with a primarily domestic focus.

Gold, which is down (-1.87% MTD) in this month of geopolitical turbulence, speaks volumes about why investors buy the yellow metal; it's not as a piggy bank or an insurance policy, but rather to diversify away from the dollar (although it is quoted in USD…). Gold has, in fact, lost its top spot on the podium of best-performing assets this year to the Kospi (+27.26% YTD) and the African Titan 50 (+26.66%).

Special mention goes to the DAX, which crossed the symbolic +20% mark (+20.71% in EUR), boosted by public infrastructure investments, which are set to jump 55% to more than 115 billion euros. These will then be maintained annually at nearly 120 billion until 2029. And this spending is just the tip of the iceberg; it will fuel German growth.

The G7 countries have agreed to exempt the United States from the global minimum tax of 15%—another victory for Trump. After a few months of turbulence, he is back in full glory. Leaders around the world are bowing down before him. Now, the United States no longer even asks for the UN Security Council's approval before intervening. They decide and act alone. China better watch out; Taiwan can breathe.

In such conditions, it’s no surprise that the S&P500 is once again at a high (+5.00% YTD) and the Nasdaq 100 is up too (+7.24%). Meanwhile, oil is down for the year (Brent -10.75%, WTI +8.82%) but up for the month (WTI +4.76% and Brent +3.99%). And for those who read the Easter headlines about cocoa prices—well, it was already declining year-to-date and now sits at -23.59%, the second worst performer after Ethereum (-27.46% YTD).

On the interest rate front, nothing much is happening.

Special mention to Nike (+18.90% MTD and -1.73% YTD)—they finally seem to be reaping the rewards of their efforts. The body plays such a central role in our societies that it's hard to imagine the global leader not benefiting from it. That said, Lululemon takes the biggest hit of the month (-25.78% and -37.85% YTD)… Another standout: Xiaomi (+65.38% YTD), a sort of hybrid between Samsung, Tesla, and Apple. In the luxury space, LVMH has slipped behind Kering YTD (-26.56% vs. -18.15%). We had an interesting conversation on the topic “Is luxury dead?”—a question we’ll be exploring in the coming months (stay tuned).

Few numbers

• According to the Women, Peace & Security Index, Iran ranks 140th out of 177 countries for women's rights.

• The number of tattooed French people has doubled in the past 15 years, while the number of tattoo artists has increased more than tenfold, sparking a fierce price war. Nearly one in five French people has a tattoo; among 18 to 35-year-olds, this figure rises to between 30% and 40%. The French tattoo market is estimated at between 200 and 300 million euros per year.

• 27% of all Harvard students in the 2024–2025 class are international.

Editorial

Iran: memory of an empire, tragedy of a nation

« Je vous parle d’un temps que les moins de vingt ans ne peuvent pas connaître »… A time when Iran dreamed of greatness, where women attended university in miniskirts, and Tehran pulsed with avant-garde film festivals.
What if, just for a moment, we forgot about surgical strikes, measured responses, and diplomatic ceasefires, and remembered that Iran is first and foremost the heir to a civilization as ancient as Babylon, as refined as Rome?
The Persia of Cyrus the Great was an empire stretching from the Indus to the Mediterranean, a pioneer in administration, culture, and law. The word “paradise” comes from pairidaēza, those walled gardens where verses of Hafez are still recited. Dynasties fall, empires collapse, but identity endures. Even Islam, upon arriving, had to adapt to this uniqueness. In the 16th century, Persia became Shiite—on its own terms: mystical, unruly, and counter to the Sunni world.

Today, Iran has 90 million inhabitants, a brilliant but constrained youth, colossal energy wealth, and a GDP per capita comparable to Algeria. Iran has the means to play among the big powers, yet it remains bogged down by sanctions, clerical clientelism, and isolation.
From the outside: a threat. From the inside: a dead end.

And what about Israel?

You can’t speak of Iran without mentioning Israel. One builds its identity on a return, the other on a revolution. And yet, memory runs deep. The State of Israel wasn’t born in 1948, but from two thousand years of exile, pogroms, and massacres. The Balfour Declaration (1917) was the beginning of a hope: the hope for a Jewish national homeland. But that return came at the expense of another people—the Palestinians, themselves trapped by history.
Victims of colonial deals, broken promises, and often indoctrinated from birth into a never-ending struggle. In Gaza or in refugee camps in Lebanon, how many young people have never seen a library, but can recite the names of missiles by heart? The tragedy here is that everyone suffers, and no one can back down.

And what if he was right?

Trump once floated a wild idea: empty Gaza, relocate its inhabitants to Jordan, and turn the coastline into a Mediterranean Dubai. With a snap of the fingers, chaos becomes skyline. Brutal? Undoubtedly. Visionary? Perhaps.
Jordan, the fragile Hashemite kingdom, already has a Palestinian majority. And if you go back to the 1920s, it was part of the original plan for the “Jewish national home”—before Britain redrew the map. This takes us back to Lawrence of Arabia, Aqaba, and promises never kept.
Modern-day Middle East was born of vague agreements, imposed borders, and fragmented peoples.
So yes, Trump’s method shocked. But deep down, he asked the real question: how much longer can we maintain an untenable status quo where everyone loses, but no one dares reset the game?

From imperial utopia to Islamic Republic

In 1979, the Shah fell. An authoritarian king, obsessed with grandeur, but deaf to his people. He forced modernization, scorned religion, crushed dissent. Even the Americans let him go.
On February 1st, an old man in black stepped off a plane in Tehran. Khomeini. In ten days, Iran flipped. The millennial monarchy vanished. Enter the Islamic Republic.
And since then? A dictatorship of mullahs who, like the Afghan Taliban, distort religion to hold onto power and keep the people subdued. Stealing modernity from a bright, change-hungry youth. Meanwhile, China—ideologically distant—smiles every time it receives another discounted Iranian tanker.

Our opinion:

Iran dreams of igniting the Middle East, but its “H” proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis—have lost their luster. The regime has been faltering for years, yet no credible alternative has emerged. And all the while, Iranian men fail to rise up to defend their daughters, sisters, and wives—relegated to a condition worthy of the Middle Ages.
In this fog of ideology, economics, and society, only one compass remains legible to the markets: the price of oil. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open, as long as tankers keep moving, everything else fades into the background.
A sad conclusion for a country that has so much to offer—and keeps getting lost.

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Investments

Black gold isn’t dead

Why Oil Still Sits at the Heart of Our Economies and Wealth Strategies

Every day, the world consumes 100 million barrels of oil. That’s the equivalent of around 5,000 Olympic swimming pools filled daily. This staggering figure highlights a simple truth: despite the energy transition, we are still massively dependent on oil.

While conflicts in the Middle East threaten maritime routes, sanctions fail to stem certain exports, and oil majors invest in renewables, one question remains: should we still be betting on black gold? The answer isn’t binary.

Oil, Still and Always King

Just look around you: plastic, fertilizers, textiles, shipping, aviation. Oil isn’t just fuel; it’s the invisible foundation of our lifestyle. Alternatives exist, but at industrial scale, they still struggle to replace the incumbent systems.

Despite talk of “the end of oil,” global demand remains stable or even slightly rising—particularly in emerging economies. The International Energy Agency expects demand to peak before 2030, but this won’t be a sharp drop; the decline will be slow, stretched over decades.

Russia, Iran: The ghost fleet

In response to sanctions, Russia and Iran have devised an opaque yet effective strategy: the ghost fleet. These vessels, often aging, sail without insurance, without transponders, switch flags, and operate between Oman, India, and China—quietly delivering crude to less picky markets. Today, there are reportedly over 1,400 of these ships for Russia and around a hundred for Iran. This grey area continues to feed the market and blur the picture.

Shale Gas: America’s Revenge

In the 2000s, “peak oil” was all the talk—the moment when global production would begin its inevitable decline. That was before the shale gas revolution and the rise of American fracking. Thanks to techniques like hydraulic fracturing, the United States became the world’s top producer, redrawing the energy map in less than a decade (“drill, baby, drill”).

But this production is costly, volatile, and vulnerable to price fluctuations. Deposits deplete faster. Since 2023, investments have slowed, and producing states are now searching for a new lease on life.

Investing: Between Yield and Risk

Oil remains a strategic asset class. For a diversified portfolio, exposure to the sector can still generate returns—particularly through majors like Exxon, Chevron, TotalEnergies, or Saudi Aramco, which offer high dividends and are less correlated to tech stocks.

But beware: it’s a highly geopolitical sector, exposed to exogenous shocks. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a surprise OPEC+ announcement, or the explosion of a ghost tanker can send prices swinging overnight.

Our Opinion

Oil is no longer the future—but it is still the present. Its end won’t be declared; it will be negotiated, shaped, transitioned. Until then, understanding its dynamics—technical (inflationary), diplomatic, strategic—remains essential for the savvy investor. Because as long as the world is filling 5,000 Olympic pools with black gold every day, you’d better keep an eye on the pool.

B-R & H Finance

Founded in 2004, B-R & H Finance SA is a Swiss entity specialized in wealth management. We offer a full range of personalized and independent investment services and advisory solutions. Regulated by SO-Fit and authorized by FINMA, we are also members of the ASG (Swiss Association of Independent Asset Managers) and work with leading custodian banks.

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