Table of Contents

• Hormuz, the wake-up call

• Few numbers

• “Don’t do this, don’t do that…”

  • Heatwave, Act II, Scene 1

• What to do when your performance is stratospheric

• B-R & H Finance

Market Review

Hormuz, the wake-up call

Markets had quietly decided to treat the Strait of Hormuz as background noise. For weeks, US indices had been grinding higher, spreads were well-behaved, and quant funds were pocketing their gains in silence. Then the weekend of July 12th changed everything: a fresh round of US strikes on Iran served as a sharp reminder that the standoff was far from over. By Monday morning, Brent had surged above $86 per barrel, up more than +18.6% for the month, experiencing its strongest daily move since 2020. The Korean KOSPI, already vulnerable to its dependence on imported energy and semiconductors, shed more than 7% in a single session, bringing its month-to-date loss to -19.1%. The shockwave was, above all, a reminder: in a world where around 20% of global oil and gas trade still passes through a single chokepoint, any re-escalation carries an immediate price tag.

The great rotation, act II

Beyond the geopolitical shock, July confirmed a rotation that had been building since early June. In semiconductors, the correction was sharp: Intel fell -21.71% for the month, caught between delays in the yields of its 18A process node, AMD surpassing it in datacenter revenues for the first time, and growing doubts over the sustainability of AI capital spending. It was not alone: SK hynix (-27.21%), Marvell (-21.66%), KLA (-20.17%), Lam Research (-19.71%) and Micron (-18.17%) all featured at the bottom of the global leaderboard, an entire sub-sector correcting after two years of relentless gains. On the other side of the ledger, Alibaba, BYD, Xiaomi and Meituan were among the top ten performers globally, rising between +17% and +19%. The rotation away from US AI darlings is looking for depth: strong balance sheets, aggressive buyback programmes, and a domestic AI industry that can now match global proprietary models in performance at a fraction of the cost. The Hang Seng gained +6.5% for the month; the Nasdaq100 gave back -3.3%.

Defensive Europe, and the question that lingers

Against this backdrop, Europe's core names played their familiar role as shock absorbers. Our reference selection averaged +3.43% year-to-date, with a modest pullback of -2.57% for the month. Novartis (+15.90% YTD) and Nestlé (+10.34%) lead the group higher, while ASML remains the standout at +68.21% YTD, driven by structural demand for EUV equipment and an upgraded 2026 guidance. On the other end, SAP (-32.65% YTD) and LVMH (-24.34%) weigh on the average. The SMI lost a mere -0.4% for the month, quietly earning its reputation as a shelter in a storm.

Gold held above $4'000 per ounce (+0.1% MTD); Bitcoin and Ethereum are up +6.7% and +13.4% respectively, yet both have been drifting in narrow ranges for weeks, unable to convert geopolitical volatility into a genuine upward catalyst. The message from this month is measured but plain: real-asset revenues and solid balance sheets navigated the turbulence that wrong-footed momentum strategies. Summer is hot, in more ways than one.

Few numbers

• +2.3°C: rise in average temperatures in Europe since the pre‑industrial era, roughly twice the global pace; Europe is the continent warming the fastest.

• 8 of the last 10 years in Europe rank among the hottest ever recorded since meteorological measurements began in the 19th century.

• Eur 170 billion: the estimated annual cost of climate damage in Europe by 2030 according to the European Environment Agency, versus around Eur 13 billion per year in the 1980s.

Editorial

“Don’t do this, don’t do that…”

A few weeks ago, I posted a short piece on LinkedIn – “heat waves, empty fairways” – that went past 22,000 views. Clearly, the subject resonates more widely than I expected. And France has just offered a fresh sequel for the very same play;

Heatwave, Act II, Scene 1

Some images sum up a country better than any presidential speech. This summer, in France, it will be that of a deserted fairway in Brittany, closed by prefectural decree. Saint‑Briac on high alert while, a few hundred kilometres away, the Swiss quietly keep playing under the same sun.

On paper, Météo‑France is categorical. The heatwave is “exceptional”, red warnings cover dozens of départements, health indicators are flirting with 2003 levels, and even Brittany is registering unprecedented emergency thresholds among the over‑75s. Faced with these figures, the State does what it does best: it generalises, it standardises, it bans. Golf courses are shut en bloc, competitions are suspended, pastis is outlawed on the village square. To save the vulnerable, everyone is marched into shelter, even if that means treating the sporty retiree like a palliative‑care patient.

The scene is almost comic, if you’re partial to dark humour. In the Finistère, people are happily swimming in water at 18°, yet the département is “scarlet red”. In Dinard, the wind blows in from the sea, clouds toy with the sun. It is no longer the local weather that rules, but a national statistical average. Once the models decide it is “too hot in France”, Brittany closes because it is in France, full stop.

The awkward question is simple: how many people, honestly, would die of heatstroke on a Breton golf course, with a ball at their feet and a bottle of water in hand? We have drowning statistics, temperature records, hospitalisation curves. We do not have data on mortality, club in hand, driver poised on the 15th tee box. There are risks we measure, and risks we invoke to justify a decision already made: put everyone in the same box because it is easier to manage.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is living in another film. The same heat maps show spikes in Ticino, tropical nights in Zurich, records in Alpine valleys. But the golf courses are open, the tennis courts too, and lakeside restaurants serve rather more than just still water. People are informed, advised, then trusted. Everyone reads the thermometer and decides whether to play at 8am or 6pm. The same climate risk; two anthropologies. On one side, the child‑citizen; on the other, the adult‑citizen.

“Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité”, engraved on town halls, looks a little worn in this light. Liberty: beyond 30°, it is confined to your air‑conditioned living room. Equality: everyone is subject to the same ban, from the cardiac patient to the athlete, from the scorching south to the temperate north. Fraternity: you are told that, in solidarity with emergency services, you must renounce your aperitif and your outdoor leisure. The motto still holds; it is practice that has drifted into a kind of health‑colbertism, protecting by immobilizing.

The science‑fiction writers saw this coming. The worst dystopias are not those where a tyrant roars. They are those impeccably orderly worlds where no one decides anything anymore because protocols have already planned it all. There is neither noise nor visible brutality, only a steady stream of instructions: “Stay at home”, “Keep hydrated”, “Avoid any sporting activity”, “Do not go out between 2pm and 6pm”. The most unsettling part is not that we are spoken to like children. It is that many end up finding it reassuring.

One can always object that heat kills, that France paid dearly for its lag in 2003, that it is better to close a little too much than too little. One can also ask where this logic stops. If the State must decide that a Breton golfer has no right to hit a ball, must it also decide when you may work, when you may vote, when you may leave your home? By managing everything through decrees and emergency plans, we manufacture a population of permanent minors, delighted to outsource the slightest choice.

Liberals have a word for this: de‑responsibilisation. In the short term, it avoids tragedies. In the long term, it anaesthetises a country. When people are no longer allowed to take a tiny risk for their own pleasure, will they be encouraged to take one to start a business, invest, innovate? The same reflexes that lock up a golf course in July clog companies with forms, norms, controls, whatever the weather outside. The heat is just a seasonal pretext in a permanent regulatory climate.

Mario Draghi delivered his report on European competitiveness in September 2024. Among other issues, he denounced the weight of regulatory frictions and the need to give private initiative more breathing room. Two years on, when the mercury rises, what we see above all is that reports come and go, and the administration stays. Alerts are triggered, préfets take over, golf courses close. The diagnosis lives in a PDF; power, meanwhile, continues to live by decree.

There is a tired phrase that says: “My freedom stops where the freedom of others begins.” That assumes someone still accepts that your freedom exists. We can live in a country where people sometimes die of heat on building sites, which is tragic, and where we nonetheless let people play golf in Brittany with a bottle of water. We can also choose to live in a country where no one ever dies on golf courses because all golf courses are closed, and where people slowly die inside from having renounced deciding for themselves. Between the two, the difference is not just about climate. It is about freedom.

And for France, as for Europe, that difference is anything but theoretical: a country that no longer dares let its citizens decide when to go out in the sun will, sooner or later, lose the habit of trusting them for everything else.

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Investments

What to do when your performance is stratospheric

The first half of 2026 has pushed two very different funds to centre stage, united by the extraordinary. Situational Awareness, the California hedge fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, has posted roughly +270% from 1 January to end‑May, driven by a clear thesis: artificial intelligence will channel colossal investment into physical infrastructure – energy, data centres, cables, cooling. Hao Greater China, the Hong Kong long/short fund managed by Zhang Hao, an engineer turned exceptional stock‑picker, the same man who once returned +138% in a single year on Greater China, is said to be up around +165% over the first five months of 2026, powered by the selective rebound in Asian markets.

Two distinct theses, two geographies, two engines. But one common point that catches our eye: in both cases, the annualized performance blows well past three digits, and that is precisely when things get complicated.

The mechanics of these funds rest on highly concentrated convictions and, in the case of Situational Awareness in particular, on significant leverage. Aschenbrenner has built a symmetrical stance: long AI infrastructure, hedged with large put positions on the big semiconductor names – Nvidia, AMD, ASML. When both legs fire at the same time, performance takes off. But this type of construction requires agility that only a modest‑sized fund can truly afford. Twelve months ago, Situational Awareness managed a few hundred million dollars, almost invisible. Today, it runs over Usd 20 billion. The market knows it. The fund has become its own constraint.

This is where the most classic behavioural bias reappears: the temptation to “crystallise” performance. When a portfolio shows +62% as of 30 June, as is the case for our technology and innovation strategy, the urge to sell everything and sit out the next correction is palpable. Berkshire Hathaway has been attempting something similar for two years, piling up record levels of cash in anticipation of a pullback. The result: markets have continued to climb. Even the best managers in the world regularly stumble on this very point: getting out at the right moment is within reach of a few; getting back in at the right moment, of almost nobody. What you gain on the way out, you often lose on the way back in.

We have therefore chosen to keep a cool head. We have trimmed a few positions with care, without walking away from the market altogether: staying invested in a conviction theme also means knowing how to adjust size. Our strategy uses neither leverage nor speculative options. It is built for a client who wants to participate fully in the technological transformation of the world without the whiplash of a highly concentrated hedge fund. +62% in the first half of 2026: we are proud of it. We have been following this theme with discipline for several years now. This semester’s performance is not a fluke; it is the result of a thesis sustained over time.

B-R & H Finance

Founded in 2004, B-R & H Finance SA is a Swiss entity specialized in wealth management. We offer a full range of personalized and independent investment services and advisory solutions. Regulated by SO-Fit and authorized by FINMA, we are also members of the ASG (Swiss Association of Independent Asset Managers) and work with leading custodian banks.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or adopt an investment strategy. The information, opinions, and analyses presented here are based on sources believed to be reliable and are expressed in good faith, but no explicit or implicit guarantee is made regarding their accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Stock market investments are subject to market and other risks, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance is not indicative of future results.