Table of Contents

• What lies beneath the surface

• Don’t give-up now

Market Review

What lies beneath the surface

The fortnight's hierarchy was set by a single event: the Iran conflict drove Brent and WTI up 27-29% month-to-date, placing oil at the summit of every asset class by a margin that dwarfs anything else in the tables. What followed was more instructive than the spike itself. Bond yields fell — the US 10Y and DE 10Y both lower — meaning safe-haven demand for duration outweighed the inflation premium that an oil shock would normally impose. Markets chose to price a growth scare over a price shock, and the Fed's pre-meeting signal that it would look through the volatility, combined with February CPI landing on consensus, was enough to keep that interpretation intact.

Within equities, the rotation is now structural rather than tactical. Energy & Utilities leads all sectors at +16.9% year-to-date with 50% of holdings still classified as bullish; Communication Services is comparably supported. Everything else is deteriorating in breadth: Technology sits at 8% bullish, Financial Services at 9%, and the consumer-facing sectors : Office Equipment (score 35, 0% bullish), Media & Publishing (score 37), Professional Services, are under pressure that predates Iran.

The geographic picture sharpens the story: Switzerland is the worst regional performer this month at -6.5%, with only 2% of stocks bullish, Sika, Roche and Richemont all off 12-16%. Switzerland's exposure to precision industrials, luxury and healthcare, exactly the sectors losing conviction, makes it the cleanest read on where the cycle is contracting.
China, by contrast, is essentially flat month-to-date at -0.1% with 28% of stocks constructive, supported by CSRC signals on ChiNext reform; Beijing's directed capital is doing what European sentiment is not. The dollar strengthened across the board : EUR/USD -3.1%, USD/CHF +2.6% as the combination of Middle East risk and solid US data reinforced the dollar's dual role as both safe haven and yield carrier.

The breadth data is the number worth watching. With fewer than one in ten technology or financial stocks bullish and Europe broadly negative year-to-date, headline index stability is increasingly a function of energy and a handful of AI-adjacent names. That is not a base; it is a narrowing. The cycle is not broadening, it is concentrating, and concentration of this kind tends to resolve rather than persist.

Few numbers

• In the US, a cohort of 600,000 veterans was tracked: among those treated with GLP‑1, drug‑related deaths were cut in half, overdoses fell 39% and suicidal thoughts 25%.

• Globally, as many as 50 million people could be on GLP‑1 medications by 2030, according to UBS, as these treatments for obesity and diabetes become part of long‑term care.

• Annual sales of GLP‑1 analogues are expected to reach USD 268 billion by 2030, up from USD 54.8 billion in 2024 – a compound growth rate of more than 30% a year.

Editorial

Don’t give-up now

Some conflicts really move the world economy; others don’t. Iran is firmly in the first camp, with a dangerous trio:

1. The vital need: oil

2. The existential threat: the bomb

3. And the chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz.

And it is the West that largely built this situation.

From Mossadegh’s overthrow in 1953 to Khomeini’s return in 1979, we have often written Iran’s story for Iranians. I was fourteen when France generously took in an elderly Shia cleric in exile at Neauphle‑le‑Château, without realising that Khomeini would use free speech, the telephone and Western cameras to run a revolution from this sleepy French village. The odd thing is that I still remember the name of the place (probably because it turned up as a question in the French edition of Trivial Pursuit in the 1980s, when everyone was playing it).

Now that the regime is wobbling, how do we avoid messing it up yet again? Do you really fix one revolution with another? Has history ever produced a « successful » revolution? One thing is clear: revolutions that work are not run from 10,000 kilometres away. Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan show what happens when you parachute in democracy with airstrikes: a failed state, porous borders, militias better equipped than the police, and exhausted populations who trust no one.

Spain was not liberated by a foreign armada. The regime that inherited Franco’s power grudgingly negotiated its own dismantling with an organised opposition. In almost every successful transition, there is an escape hatch for at least part of the elite. Without that, the temptation is always to fight to the bitter end, even if it means burning down the country you rule. A decent political deal is a compromise with adversaries you will still have to live with tomorrow.

A regime does not vanish like a circus taken down overnight. Long after Franco’s death, Spain still lived with the same judges, senior civil servants and officers trained under the dictatorship, and it took years for democratic habits to permeate these institutions; the Movida, driven by the young, did the cultural heavy lifting. Iran will be no different: the courts, the army, the bureaucracy will not turn virtuous by magic. Real change looks like a careful dismantling, not an explosion.

Now let’s imagine the reports about Mojtaba Khamenei being seriously wounded are true. In that state, the decision to anoint him as the new Supreme Leader tells us there was no real alternative for those in charge. He is also the man who controls the war chest; he is widely seen as paranoid and therefore reluctant to share information about money flows. In this scenario, the regime is probably weaker than it appears, and it would be counter‑productive for Washington to ease off now: the hard part has been done, this is when pressure is most effective.

For markets, a short, sharp shock is often preferable to a drawn‑out, low‑grade crisis. Covid showed this clearly: a brutal crash followed by a rapid rebound once the framework was clarified. A never‑ending confrontation around Hormuz would do the opposite: prolong the energy spike, keep growth in limbo and inject volatility into every asset class.

Europe, which helped create the problem and will suffer the economic fallout most directly, cannot pretend to be a bystander. It should shoulder part of the military and diplomatic effort if it wants any say in the outcome of a conflict that will shape its supplies, its markets and, ultimately, the credibility of its strategic voice.

Geographically, Iran sits at the junction of almost every route that matters between East and West. Between the Caspian and the Gulf, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent, it is a natural piece of the new silk roads. In a normalisation scenario, the country could become a key hub for flows of energy, goods and data between Europe and Asia. The real question, for us, is simple: will this crossroads tilt towards Europe – or towards Asia?

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Wealth

Switzerland regains its shine

The recent Iranian rocket strikes and falling debris over Dubai did more than damage a few buildings ; they broke the spell the city had been casting for years. Private jets and evacuation charters costing tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars have been scrambled to get families out of the region at short notice, often in the direction of Geneva. Behind the headlines, you hear the same story from large fortunes: fear of a drawn‑out conflict and long‑term residence plans in the emirate suddenly up for review.

In that light, Switzerland is reappearing as what it has quietly been for decades: a refuge. Sometimes dismissed as dull, but a kind of dullness that suddenly looks very attractive. Political stability, the rule of law, strong protections for individuals and for family structures – and, not insignificantly, a tax system ranked 4th globally for its competitiveness. For very large estates, the question is no longer just “What is my marginal tax rate?” but “Where can I genuinely sleep well at night?”

Over the long run, the Swiss franc has done something quite simple and quite rare: it has steadily appreciated against most major currencies. It behaves a little like gold – a safe‑haven asset – with one crucial difference: you can live in it. You can buy a property, enjoy it with your family, and sell it when the time comes. In a family balance sheet, exposure to Chf is both protection against crises and an anchor to an institutional framework that has proved itself over generations. For some Gulf‑based clients, exchanging part of their geopolitical risk for currency risk – in favour of a historically strong currency – no longer feels like a sacrifice; it feels like buying insurance.

There is also a quieter but important dimension: Switzerland’s openness to “new” wealth, particularly from digital assets. While much of Europe is tightening tax and regulatory screws on crypto, Switzerland has positioned itself as a relatively clear tax and regulatory haven for blockchain‑derived fortunes, with a framework that encourages innovation without turning a blind eye to compliance.

On the ground, Geneva (around Chf 20k to 40k per m² for prime) and Zurich (18k to 35k) stand out as natural destinations because they offer what Dubai (roughly 10k to 20k) was selling: political stability, physical safety and a robust legal environment for wealth protection. Alpine resorts are part of the same story: Gstaad (39k to 45k), St Moritz (30k to 35k), Verbier (28k to 32k) and Crans‑Montana (20k to 25k) are all seeing sustained interest. Switzerland also enjoys a very concrete advantage over Dubai: it is an easier place in which to grow old. The climate is gentler, healthcare is first‑class, and inheritance tax is close to zero in most cantons.

Recent political decisions reinforce this positioning. Swiss voters have just rejected, by a wide margin, a proposal to tax inheritances above Chf 50 million at 50%. At the same time, Italy has once again raised its flat tax for new residents, from Eur 200'000 to 300'000 per year. In that context, Switzerland’s lump‑sum regime regains competitiveness – provided one does not earn Swiss‑source income.

Strategically, the Middle East conflict may well stall Dubai’s rise as a direct rival to Switzerland in international wealth management, at least for as long as the security backdrop remains uncertain. But the game is global: Singapore, Miami and a handful of other hubs are also vying for the role of safe haven, each with its own mix of lifestyle, tax and politics.

For Switzerland, the arrival of wealthy families from the Gulf and beyond means, in the short term, more capital and more demand: for wealth management, prime real estate, international schooling and private healthcare. Over the medium term, it also means extra pressure on already tight property markets, especially in cities and Alpine resorts, and a political need to explain the deal to local voters – for example, in debates over whether to cap the population at 10 million by 2050. In that environment, a wealth manager’s role is both discreet and essential: helping these families put down roots, invest responsibly in their new home country, and turn the search for safety into something more constructive than a simple flow of capital.

B-R & H Finance

Founded in 2004, B-R & H Finance SA is a Swiss entity specialized in wealth management. We offer a full range of personalized and independent investment services and advisory solutions. Regulated by SO-Fit and authorized by FINMA, we are also members of the ASG (Swiss Association of Independent Asset Managers) and work with leading custodian banks.

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